The Brazilian government is evaluating the possibility of allocating the beef export quota to China among processing plants for 2026. The proposal will be discussed at Gecex and was put forward by the Ministry of Agriculture with the aim of avoiding a concentration of shipments within the tariff-free volume.
The measure comes after China established in 2025 a 55% tariff on shipments exceeding the annual quota. For 2026, Brazil will be allowed to export 1.106 million tons without the additional tariff, with an increase of around 2% in the following two years. However, in 2025 Brazilian shipments to China exceeded 1.6 million tons, above the limit set for next year.
Government officials said alternatives have been presented to organize export volumes and avoid a rush of shipments. They also clarified that the measure depends on legal analysis and does not imply market interference or retaliation against China, but rather internal organization permitted by the Asian country itself.
In the private sector, the Brazilian Association of Meatpackers argued that efforts should first focus on eliminating the out-of-quota tariff. If that path fails, they support a proportional distribution among companies based on their 2025 export performance.
Data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) show that Brazil exported 258.94 thousand tons of beef in January, the highest volume ever for the month and above the previous record set in 2025.
China accounted for 46.3% of total shipments, in line with the 2025 average (47.7%). In January, 119.63 thousand tons were shipped to the Chinese market, also a record for the month. According to Cepea, if the pace observed in January continues, this year’s quota could be reached by September.
